Whether you use a prediction market or a sportsbook, Propability turns player props into a plain chance, lines the apps up side by side, and shows where a model estimate disagrees.
A 55¢ contract and -122 odds both mean about a 55% chance. We do that math for every prop we cover, whichever app it comes from.
A model built on player and game data gives its own chance for each prop, shown right beside what the apps say.
When the model and the apps disagree, the difference shows up as the edge. You decide what, if anything, to do with it.
Each prop with the market chance, the model chance and the edge in one row. Sort and filter by game, player or stat.
See how different apps line up on the same prop, so you can spot where they differ.
Tell us your state and which apps you use, and Propability leans toward the markets you can actually reach.
Short notes on why a number moved, no jargon, so the math is easy to follow even if you're new to it.
Waitlist members get first access at launch and the option to lock in the founding rate for as long as they stay subscribed. NCAAF, NBA and NCAAM are coming.
Joining the waitlist is free. Nothing is charged now, and you'll choose whether to subscribe at launch.
No. Propability is an information and analytics service. We don't take bets, hold money, or place trades for anyone. We publish probabilities and our analysis; what you do with it is your call.
No. An edge is the difference between two estimates, not a promise. Plenty of plays with an edge lose. Nothing here is a guarantee or financial advice.
Anyone 21+ can use Propability. Whether you can use a given prediction market or sportsbook depends on your state's rules, and those rules are changing. Check what's allowed where you live; the state you give us helps us show markets that fit.
Soon. NFL comes first, with NCAAF, NBA and NCAAM after. Waitlist members get in first.
At launch, odds come from Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, Robinhood and Crypto.com. The major sportsbooks in the sign-up list follow after launch.